Garrett Jin: BTC Needs to Hold $80,000 After Surpassing $82,500 to Absorb Selling Pressure

BlockBeats News, September 3rd. Agent of the "BTC OG Insider Whale" Garrett Jin released a market analysis stating that the $76,600 level, which was marked as a key downside level last week, played a role this week. Bitcoin retreated to this support level before the U.S. stock market opened but ultimately held firm and returned to above $77,000. The cost basis map shows that a significant amount of new supply has formed between $75,000 and $80,000, providing the market with a more solid floor support than during the first round of liquidation. The largest visible cost basis cluster is located in the $80,000 to $82,500 range. If the price breaks through $78,600 to $79,000, it will enter the upper range of the current range, but the tougher test lies between $80,000 and $82,500. Only after the daily close stabilizes above $82,500 and holds the $80,000 range on a pullback can it be considered as effectively digesting price-sensitive sell orders.

On the funding side, the August U.S. spot ETF recorded approximately $3.5 billion in net inflows. The start of September saw a shift to two-way flows, with a net outflow of about $237 million on Tuesday, and retail activity cooling down simultaneously. Garrett Jin stated that only when the daily close falls below $76,600 and ETF fund flows, Coinbase premium, and 7-day average realized P&L all weaken simultaneously will he consider it a true warning signal. Before that, he will not directly short the support level.

Macro pressure is becoming the core contradiction in the market. Oil prices returned to around $95, U.S. 10-year bond yields broke through 4.8%, and the market's pricing of a September rate hike by the Fed has risen to about 70%. Bitcoin's ability to hold above $76,600 in the face of this macro shockwave is significant because it provides good evidence that recent spot demand is not purely driven by short liquidation. Friday's non-farm payroll report will be the next key test: if the data is strong and reinforces the rate hike logic, $76,600 may be tested again; if the data is weak and Bitcoin fails to reclaim $79,000, it indicates that spot demand may be losing momentum due to factors outside the macro picture.

Garrett Jin maintains a bullish view until the end of the year. AI profits have not declined, AI spending is still advancing, the Bitcoin allocation channel is a reality, but the short-term path highly depends on whether interest rates can halt the current accelerated uptrend. Risk assets can withstand high rates, but they struggle to cope with rising yields every week.