Hormuz Strait to Be Renamed "Trump Stait"? Smart Money Predicts Shipping Volume Recovery Within the Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a Sharpie bet $7.7k on "Will traffic in the Hormuz Strait return to normal this year?", with an average buy-in probability of 30.8%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" stands at 25.5%.

pup1 invested $7.7k, with the top-related market being Iran, with a net profit of $46.6k. Out of 375 settled trades in this market, their win rate is 189/375 (50%), with 72 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251-$0.4), their median historical investment amount is $390, and this investment is 19.7 times that median.

On the 2nd, AFP reported that Trump wants to rename the Hormuz Strait to the "Trump Strait." He claimed on Truth Social that the U.S. already controls this waterway, with the White House later releasing a map showing the new name. Trump later said that this idea was just a passing comment. The U.S. government has not announced any formal renaming process.

On the 2nd, the U.S. military recently targeted Iran's radar, missile systems, and maritime military facilities near the Hormuz Strait. Trump stated that this operation would not last long and mentioned that the U.S. military could strike again at any time. Subsequently, Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. and allied targets in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq.

Reuters reported on the 27th that Iran has presented the main conditions to Qatar for restoring navigation, including lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, sanctions relief, and payment of war reparations. Iran and Oman are considering establishing a temporary central maritime route and jointly managing traffic. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports is still in effect, and the two sides have not reached a new navigation agreement.

On the 2nd, Reuters reported that some senior White House officials hope to control the U.S.-Iran conflict before the November midterm elections. Declining support for war, rising fuel prices, and pressure on military stockpiles are influencing U.S. policy. The Hormuz Strait handles about 20% of global oil and LNG transportation, and restoring normal traffic will require a stable ceasefire arrangement, unified navigation rules, and an enforceable maritime security mechanism.
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