Glassnode: Bitcoin Still Expected to Range-Bound, Resistance at $83,000 to $86,000

BlockBeats News, September 3rd, Glassnode released a report stating that a mid-August short squeeze drove Bitcoin's rebound, pushing it above $80,000 on August 27th. However, the price was rejected in a long-term overhead supply zone, falling to around $76,000 and triggering consecutive long liquidations. Currently, a significant amount of potential short liquidation positions are clustered between $83,000 and $86,000, while an unconsumed cluster of long liquidations exists between $60,000 and $63,000. BTC is currently in between the two.

On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 in May this year, about 65% of the supply was in a profitable state. By the end of August, when revisiting the same price level, this proportion had risen to 68%. A summer reshuffle of chips has raised the short-term holder's cost basis to around $71,000. The same price level now would trigger more profit-taking chips, increasing potential selling pressure. Considering the cost basis and chip distribution, $62,000 to $65,000 is an accumulation support zone, while $83,000 to $86,000 is a concentration zone for long-term holders.

The average 7-day net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF during the rebound reached as high as $290 million per day. However, the secondary market's daily trading volume remained at around $3 billion, significantly lower than the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly dropped to 4.6% on August 19th following Treasury buyback news but quickly returned to 4.8% in just 8 trading days, hitting a new high for this cycle, indicating that sovereign debt pressure continues to affect market valuations.

In the options market, short-term bullish sentiment has cooled off, while long-term options demand remains. The open interest of Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25th is approximately $14 billion, with a large number of positions concentrated above $80,000, potentially serving as crucial volatility and position anchor points in the coming weeks. Until the supply above $83,000 to $86,000 is absorbed, BTC will continue to maintain range-bound volatility, with $62,000 to $65,000 as the main downside reference area.