Still about $500 billion away from the global market cap, the September product launch event is a key milestone, with smart money predicting Apple to take the top spot by the end of the month.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put $2,600 into the question "Will Apple become the world's largest company by market cap on September 30?" with an average buy-in probability of 6.4%. The current probability for "Yes" is 8.0%.
SteveTheFish has invested $2,600, with the top-performing sector in this market being Finance, with a sector net profit of $24,100. Out of 70 settled trades in this sector, SteveTheFish has a win rate of 50/70 (71%), with 7 trades meeting the criteria of buying below $0.8 and selling above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001-$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $132, making this investment 20.0 times that median.
As of the close on the 1st, NVIDIA's market cap is approximately $5.25 trillion, maintaining its top position globally; Apple's market cap is around $4.75 trillion, ranking second, with a difference of about $505 billion between the two companies. If NVIDIA's market cap remains at the current level, Apple's stock would need to rise by approximately 10.6% to close this gap.
On the 1st, Reuters reported that John Tanous has officially taken over from Tim Cook as Apple's CEO, with Cook transitioning to the role of Executive Chairman. Tanous previously led Apple's hardware engineering and was involved in the development of multiple generations of iPhone, Mac, iPad, and AirPods. His first major product event after taking over is the new product launch event on September 9.
Apple is expected to unveil a new generation of iPhone on September 9 and may introduce its first foldable iPhone. Analysts anticipate that the high-end foldable product will increase the average selling price of the iPhone. IDC forecasts that Apple may deliver over 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027.
NVIDIA continues to receive support for AI spending recently. Reuters reported on August 27 that the company expects revenue to grow by around 70% in the next fiscal year. Following this announcement, the stock price rose by 6.8% in a single day, increasing the market cap by about $296 billion. At least 16 brokerages subsequently raised NVIDIA's target price, citing reasons including demand for Rubin processors and continued data center investment growth.
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