Analysis: Bitcoin HODLer Distribution Reaches 281,900 Coins, Up 61.5% Since August 18

BlockBeats News, September 1st, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that from August 18th to August 28th, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holders (LTH) 30-day cumulative distribution increased from 174,500 BTC to 281,900 BTC, a 61.5% uptick, reaching the highest level since 2026 on August 28th. This metric accelerated significantly during the rapid rebound after the Bitcoin short squeeze, indicating that long-term holders are taking profits as prices recover.

Meanwhile, the LTH MVRV ratio rose from 1.31 on August 18th to 1.64 on August 27th, remaining at 1.60 on August 31st, implying that the Bitcoin market value held by long-term holders is about 60% higher than their average realized value. This suggests that despite increased distribution activity, long-term holders still have significant unrealized gains.

Axel believes that the price rebound following the short squeeze has elevated both the profitability of long-term holders and the pace of token distribution, setting the stage for further profit-taking. If the Bitcoin price remains stable, long-term holders may continue to offload supply, adding additional selling pressure to the market. The key question in the current market environment is whether the high-level distribution by long-term holders will persist and if new buying pressure can absorb this additional supply; otherwise, the market may face renewed price pressure.