The US and Iran have once again clashed, with the Iranian ceasefire not yet directly breached. Smart Money predicts the Iranian ceasefire will hold until October.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money bet $5.8k on "Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire last until September 30th?", with an average buy-in probability of 73.3%. Currently, the "Yes" probability is 85.5%.
BigScience bet $5.8k and is most active in the Israel x Iran market segment, with a net profit of $8.6k. Out of 15 settled trades in this segment, their win rate is 12/15 (80%), with 3 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.8), the median historical bet amount is $4.5k.
On the 31st, the US military struck an Iranian rocket launch site on Larak Island, stating that related forces were preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz. Iran then launched ballistic missiles at 2 US bases in Jordan. President Trump said the US would respond forcefully. Iranian President Masoud Pezhzeiyan stated that continuing the war was not in the interest of either party.
On August 31st, the Associated Press reported that Iran claimed 2 people were killed and several injured in the US attack. Jordan intercepted 8 Iranian missiles entering its airspace, while the UAE intercepted a drone from Iran. The Iranian military warned of possible future attacks on bases and locations assisting the US in its actions. The UAE government called for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal navigation through a political solution.
Reuters reported today that Qatar and Oman's mediation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has not made significant progress. Trump has vowed to continue striking Iran, and Iran has warned of expanding the range of retaliation. In the coming weeks, whether Israel will directly join US military action and whether Iran will target Israel itself will be the main risks to the Israel-Iran ceasefire's continuation.
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