「Whale Watching」: Oil Price Plunges Amid Extreme Volatility, Smart Money Still Expects Oil to Break $100, Goes Short 50x on S&P

BlockBeats News, August 31st. According to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), during the overnight rapid rise of WTI crude oil, Polymarket trader "tetrose" continued to increase their position at the end of the month, targeting $90, $95, and $100 bets they had placed earlier.

Between 3:35 and 4:07 a.m. on August 31st, during the surge in oil prices, they executed 6 consecutive buy orders, adding approximately $3,182 to their investment. The implied market probabilities for the $90, $95, and $100 targets were about 3.63%, 1.50%, and 0.70%, respectively; the current probabilities are 4.5%, 1.6%, and 0.5%, respectively.

tetrose's total cost for the three Yes positions is approximately $38,900, with the current value at only about $8,291, resulting in an overall unrealized loss of about $30,600, representing a loss of about 78.7%, with a specific unrealized loss of about $26,900 for the $95 position.

Following the oil price surge, this morning, after closing a profitable long position of 5,349.14 Brent crude oil contracts, tetrose placed a buy order for 3,618.13 contracts at $88.7 to open a new long position, intending to wait for a price decrease to re-enter the market, with an amount of approximately $320,900. The order remained unmatched throughout due to the continuous rise in oil prices and was canceled at 1:22 p.m.

Simultaneously, their short position on the S&P 500 established on August 28th remains intact. The address currently holds a 50x leveraged short position of 274.773 SP500 contracts, with a position value of about $2.113 million, an average entry price of 7759.6 points, an unrealized profit of about $19,200, and a take-profit order placed at 7600 points to close the entire position.

Historical records show that "tetrose" has closed a total of 274 positions related to oil prices, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and other geopolitical themes, with 150 profitable and 124 losing positions, accounting for approximately 54.7% profitable positions and a total realized profit of about $641,900.