The US and Iran launched attacks against each other after a month, with the probability of Iran "completely closing its airspace" rising to 26%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a sharp bettor has wagered $2.0k on "Will Iran completely close its airspace this year?", with an average buy probability of 18.8%. The current probability of "Yes" is 26.0%.

GollumGekko has bet $2.0k, with the most relevant category being Iran Ceasefire, with a net profit of $95.4k. Out of 207 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 127/207 (61%), with a total of 49 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median of their historical wagered amount is $258.

In the early hours of August 31, Beijing time, the US military targeted two Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile launchers on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press quoted a US Central Command spokesperson as saying that US forces observed the relevant forces preparing to launch rockets carrying limpet mines, prompting this operation; this is the first time since late July that the US has publicly acknowledged a strike inside Iran.

On the same day, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that they had struck two US military bases in Jordan with ballistic missiles and drones in response to the attack on Qeshm Island. The Guard also stated that the attack on Qeshm Island resulted in casualties among personnel and civilians and warned that further attacks would face more intense retaliation.

However, the threshold for this market is higher than local no-fly zones or airlines rerouting on their own: only if Iranian authorities initiate a nationwide closure or closure of the Tehran FIR that universally applies to commercial flights will trigger a "Yes." External aviation warnings, individual airline suspensions, and localized military airspace restrictions are insufficient.

As of August 20, UAE airline Flydubai has resumed some flights through the eastern corridor of Iran after completing a security assessment; Iraqi Airways has also restarted flights to northern Iran and plans to resume flights to Tehran.
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