This Week's Macro Outlook: Renewed Uncertainty in US-Iran Conflict, Non-Farm Payrolls May Reverse Rate Hike Expectations

BlockBeats News, August 31st. Last night, the US-Iran conflict escalated again as the US launched an attack on the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliated immediately. Cryptocurrency and stock markets experienced a significant downturn due to this event. This week, the US-Iran conflict is once again expected to be a key focus for the market. However, some market analysts believe that this conflict may have limited duration, and the US will continue to primarily use economic sanctions to pressure Iran.

Additionally, this week, the market will see the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. Among these, the US August jobs report, to be released on Friday, is the last non-farm data before the Fed's September 16th interest rate meeting and will be a key indicator of the September rate hike expectation. Bloomberg's Chief Economist Anna Wong stated over the weekend that the jobs data may be weaker, leading to a decreased probability of a Fed rate hike. The key macro events of this week are as follows:

Monday to Tuesday, G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting;

Tuesday 21:45, US releases final August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; 22:00, US releases August ISM Manufacturing PMI;

Wednesday 20:15, US releases August ADP Employment Change; 21:45, Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision, with the market expecting the rate to remain unchanged at 2.25%;

Thursday 02:00, Federal Reserve releases Beige Book; 20:30, US announces Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Governor Waller gives interview; 22:00, US releases August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;

Friday 03:00, 2026 FOMC Voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker speak; 20:30, US releases August Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate.

On the earnings front, Dell is set to report its second-quarter earnings after the US market closes on Tuesday, with the market expecting an adjusted EPS of $4.91; Broadcom will report its fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings after the US market closes on Wednesday, with revenue expected around $29.4 billion and EPS of $3.24. The performance and guidance of these two companies will further assess the demand for AI servers, custom chips, and network equipment.