The Fed's September Rate Hike Probability Rises to 57%

BlockBeats News, August 30th, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in September is currently at 43%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is at 57%.

Previously, Powell's speech on Friday evening at Jackson Hole was more hawkish than the market expected. Powell stated that if policymakers are not confident that inflation is "on track to meet our goals at 2 percent over time," the Fed "has work to do." This implies that if price pressures do not ease, the Fed's next move could be a rate hike.

Prior to the September Fed meeting, there will also be a Non-Farm Payrolls report and a CPI inflation report, along with some other minor data releases. Given that recent U.S. jobs reports have fallen well short of expectations, with significant divergences, any further signs of weakness could significantly dampen market expectations of a September rate hike.