Trump Refuses to Resume US-Iran Talks, Smart Money Predicts US to End Naval Blockade on Iran by September 7

According to PolyBeats data, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $3.5k on the question "Will the US announce the end of the naval blockade on Iran by September 7?" with an average buying probability of 12.0%. The current probability for "Yes" is 5.5%.

Warren Buffett has invested $3.5k, with the top-related category in this market being Trump, with a net profit of $172k. In this category, out of 596 settled trades, his win rate is 426/596 (71%), with 104 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was over $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051-$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $379.

On the 27th, Trump stated that the US is currently not in talks with Iran and is not seeking a meeting. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said the US will continue its economic pressure on Iran until Iran is willing to engage in meaningful discussions.

The US Treasury initiated an "Economic Isolation Action" on the 24th, expanding the scope of secondary sanctions in the digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors, and sanctioning nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels. The Treasury Department has called on other countries to close financial and trade channels related to Iran and has stated it will continue to accelerate enforcement actions.

On the 25th, the Associated Press reported that Iran and Oman proposed establishing a temporary joint air corridor and cooperating on mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported on the 27th that Iran is working to restore conditions for normal navigation, including ending the war, lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports, lifting sanctions, and paying reparations. The two countries are still working out the details of the navigation agreement.
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