Ukraine Boosts Elite Commander in Keynote Belt, Smart Money Predicts Russian Forces Won't Occupy Entire Kostyantynivka Area This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money placed a $2.9k bet on "Will Russia occupy all of Kostyantynivka by the end of this year?" choosing "No," with an average buy-in probability of 48.0%. The current probability of "Yes" is 48.5%.

GoriIIa also invested $2.9k in this market, with the top-related category being Politics, with a net profit of $511k. Out of 226 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 169/226 (75%), with 33 trades meeting the criteria of buying below $0.8 and selling above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401-$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $6.4k.

Kostiantynivka is located in Donetsk Oblast and is a key transportation and industrial city at the southern end of Ukraine's eastern "fortified belt." The War Studies Institute stated on the 26th that Russian forces continue to deploy small infantry units to the city and its outskirts. Ukrainian forces still control the northern and northwestern parts of the city, with some Ukrainian activities in the city center and southeastern areas. Russian main forces have yet to enter and consolidate control over most of the city.

The War Studies Institute's report on the 26th indicated that Russian infiltrators have reached the central market area along Bakhmutska Street in the northeastern part of the city, with movements observed in the north and northwest. Ukrainian forces are engaging these small groups. The Institute's report on the 25th did not confirm any new significant Russian advances in the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Reuters reported on the 26th that Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Andriy Biletsky, commander of the 3rd Army, and Major General Yeniy Prorokopenko, commander of the 1st Separate Special Forces Brigade, to lead a new Eastern Defense Cluster. Both forces have been involved in combat operations in the Donetsk direction. Ukraine plans to strengthen the urban defense line consisting of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.

The Russian Ministry of Defense had previously announced on July 3rd that they had fully occupied Kostiantynivka. The Ukrainian government stated the next day that Ukrainian forces were still actively defending the city and its outskirts. Recent open-source battlefield assessments on the 26th continue to show Ukrainian forces holding positions within the city. Russian forces are currently expanding their control through small infantry infiltrations and airstrikes, with urban fighting ongoing.
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