Iran Says Deal Ready to Go, Smart Money Betting on <em>Hormuz Accord</em> Within 4 Days

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has placed a $1.0k bet on "Will the Iran-Oman Hormuz Peace Agreement be reached by September?" with an average buy-in probability of 16.0%, currently with a "Yes" probability of 11.5%.

BrightStars has invested $1.0k, with Iran being the most relevant market segment, resulting in a net profit of $756k. Their win rate in this segment, out of 215 settled trades, is 130/215 (60%), with 21 trades having a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell-out price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median of their historical investment amount is $9.5k.

Based on the event rules, the agreement needs to be jointly announced by the two countries or separately declared by each, with settlement conditions for a "Yes" outcome only met when a public announcement confirms it as a mutually accepted and officially effective management agreement. Currently, both sides have announced a phased framework. Iran has stated that the ownership and revenue distribution management have achieved satisfactory results, but Oman has not yet declared a full bilateral management agreement.

The Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a joint Iran-Oman statement on the 25th. They proposed a phased resumption of safe navigation in the Hormuz Strait, the establishment of a temporary joint navigation corridor, and joint mine-clearing operations in the strait. Technical teams from both countries will continue negotiations on a permanent route, vessel information sharing, and future strait management. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi expressed hope for a prompt official announcement of the temporary corridor by both sides.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated on the 25th that the two countries had reached an understanding on the temporary route. Ships entering the Persian Gulf will pass through Iranian waters, while routes exiting the Gulf will use Iranian and Omani waters. The two countries plan to further discuss a permanent navigation route in the next 30–60 days.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hussein Mahdavi on the 26th mentioned that Iran and Oman have reached mutually acceptable results regarding strait management ownership and revenue distribution. Reuters today cited a senior Iranian official stating that the details of the agreement are still being worked out, and the complete agreement has not yet been finalized. The Omani government has currently not made a separate announcement accepting the revenue distribution arrangement.
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