Analysis: Bitcoin's Next Move Hinges on PCE, Nvidia Earnings, and Powell's Speech

BlockBeats News, August 26th, the next move of Bitcoin may depend on three key events this Wednesday: U.S. July PCE inflation data, NVIDIA's second-quarter earnings report, and Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. After rising from around $63,000 to above $80,000, Bitcoin has currently retraced below $79,000, with the 14-day RSI surpassing 70, indicating a short-term overbought condition.

The market expects U.S. July core PCE to grow by 3.2% year-on-year and 0.18% month-on-month, compared to 3.3% and 0.13% in June, respectively. If the data surpasses expectations, it could reinforce concerns about Fed tightening, putting pressure on Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. CME FedWatch shows that the bond market currently prices in a close to 38% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September.

NVIDIA is set to report its second-quarter earnings after Wednesday's market close. If the performance significantly exceeds expectations, it could alleviate concerns about AI capital expenditure relying on debt financing and support risk assets. Since early 2025, Bitcoin has had a 90-day rolling correlation with NVIDIA's stock price mostly above 0.5.

Traders will also focus on Warsh's speech on Friday. The U.S. Treasury recently announced plans to increase long-term bond purchases to curb rising yields, which has been seen as a catalyst for Bitcoin's recent surge. The market will observe whether Warsh adjusts the previous inclination towards letting the market determine pricing and expresses support for Treasury's actions.