Analyst: Bitcoin On-Chain Inflow Turns Positive for the First Time in Nearly 3 Months, But Demand Intensity Remains at Historic Lows

BlockBeats News, August 26th. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the directional improvement of Bitcoin on-chain fund flow has occurred in the second half of August. The Realized Cap HODL Waves Positive Change reached +0.10% on August 24th, turning positive for the first time since May 28th, further rising to +0.21% as of August 26th. This signifies the end of nearly 3 months of net outflows.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin 30-day SOPR has been above 1 for 6 consecutive days, currently at 2.52, indicating that the 30-day SOPR is about 2.5 times the new BTC issued during the same period. This metric dropped to -6.93 on August 2nd and peaked at 3.16 on August 21st.

However, the absolute strength of the two metrics remains relatively low. The median value of the Realized Cap Positive Change since 2024 is +3.24%, with the current +0.21% being at the lower end of the positive sample between 3% and 4%; the historical median for the SOPR when above 1 is 7.65, with the current 2.52 also in the lowest 10%.

It is believed that the more critical signal at the moment is the shift in fund flow direction from outflows to slight inflows and demand surpassing new supply again, but a strong new demand cycle cannot be confirmed yet. Further observation is needed to see if the Realized Cap can remain positive and if the SOPR can expand further.