Middle East Embassy Begins Personnel Repatriation, Geopolitical Smart Money Predicts US-Iran Ceasefire to Last Until October

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $4.8k on "Will the US-Iran ceasefire continue until October?", with an average buy-in probability of 73.0%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 81.5%.

Trading4Fridge has invested $4.8k, with the highest related category in this market being Geopolitics, resulting in a net profit of $38.4k. Out of a total of 1012 settled transactions in this category, the win rate is 590/1012 (58%), with 345 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $1.1k.

Reuters reported on the 25th that the US and Iran have not carried out airstrikes on each other's military targets for several weeks. While maritime conflicts persist near the Strait of Hormuz, there has been no recent direct US airstrike on Iranian soil. Oil shipments through the strait have returned to a daily volume of about 5 million barrels.

On the 25th, the US began arranging for diplomatic personnel to return to embassies in Lebanon, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, among other places. Some personnel are set to return to their posts as early as this week, with initial embassy staffing levels to be restored to 75%-85% of normal capacity. This arrangement reflects the latest US assessment of security risks in the region.

On the 24th, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on about 60 individuals, entities, and vessels linked to Iran, while holding off on broader secondary sanctions for now. Polls released on the same day by Reuters and Ipsos indicated that only 31% of the US public supports military strikes against Iran. Economic sanctions and regional diplomacy remain key elements of US's public actions in dealing with Iran.
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