After Trump expressed his desire to meet with Kim Jong-un, Kim launched 10 ballistic missiles; Geopolitical Nostradamus account predicts 93% likelihood that the two will not meet this year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $4,800 to predict "Will Trump meet Kim Jong-un within the year?", with an average buy-in probability of 80.2%. Currently, the probability of "yes" stands at 34.5%.

agagyu has invested $4,800, and the most relevant category to this market is Geopolitics, with a net profit of $17.6k. Out of 72 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 67/72 (93%), with 2 trades where the buy price was under $0.8 and the sell price was over $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $807.

On the 21st, during a press event in the Oval Office, Trump expressed his wish to meet Kim Jong-un again by 2026. He mentioned that he got along well with Kim and expressed his willingness to meet with him. Trump also suggested that Kim might reach out to him during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit scheduled for November 2026 in Shenzhen.

Reuters reported on the 21st that Kim Yo-jong denied recent contact between Trump and Kim Jong-un. She stated that their personal relationship remains good, but the current U.S. policy towards North Korea remains hostile. North Korea did not respond positively to the signal of the U.S. scaling back joint military exercises with South Korea and launched around 10 ballistic missiles into the eastern sea after Trump expressed his intention for a meeting.

Reuters reported on the 24th that South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun agreed with U.S. Secretary of State Marko Rubio to continue coordinating on the North Korean nuclear issue. The South Korean government stated it would assist in promoting Trump's message to facilitate U.S.-North Korea dialogue. Both sides decided to maintain the joint defense posture between South Korea and the U.S., and the call's statement did not mention the establishment of a new communication channel between the U.S. and North Korea.
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