NVIDIA Extends Losses for a Week as Smart Money Predicts Drop from Top Valuation Ranking This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $9.2k on the question "Will NVIDIA be the world's largest company by market cap on the last day of this year?" betting "No," with an average buy-in probability of 30.0%. The current probability of "Yes" is 71.5%.

Hauchn has invested $9.2k, with the top-performing sector in this market being Finance, with a sector net profit of $305k. Out of 166 settled trades in this sector, their success rate is 60/166 (36%), with 30 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201-$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $3.3k.

As of the US stock market's close on the 24th, NVIDIA fell 2.9% to $208.48, marking the 7th consecutive trading day of decline with a total decline of about 7.5%. NVIDIA's current market cap is approximately $5.05 trillion, maintaining its position as the global leader. Apple's market cap is around $4.53 trillion, with a difference of about $520 billion between the two companies.

Bloomberg reported on the 22nd that some large NVIDIA customers have learned that servers equipped with the Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell chips may see prices rise by over 15% in early 2027. Reuters reported on the 24th that Taiwanese prosecutors have indicted 9 individuals for illegally exporting AI servers to China, including an NVIDIA employee in Taiwan. NVIDIA stated that it will cooperate with regulatory authorities to address the related charges.

The market is expecting NVIDIA's upcoming quarterly revenue to reach around $92 billion. Reuters stated on the 24th that investors will be monitoring the growth rate of the data center business and the procurement plans of large cloud computing companies. Texas has already halted new data center grid connection approvals, as power demands and community resistance are beginning to impact US AI infrastructure projects.
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