The Smart Money that Tripled Its Book Profits in This Rally Predicts Ethereum to Break $2,600 This Month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy trader has placed a $24.3k bet on "Will Ethereum hit $2,600 this month?", with an average buy-in probability of 81.1%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 51.3%.

JnStrtPrdctnMrkts has also invested $24.3k in this market, with the top related category being cryptocurrency, resulting in a net loss of -$33.8k. Out of 65 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 56/65 (86%), with 6 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount was $49.2k.

Before the current cryptocurrency surge, this account's PnL curve was around $300k, quickly rising to nearly $1M. In the past 30 days, the account has made a profit of approximately $801.9k, $729k in the last 7 days, $162k in the past 24 hours, with the current position valued at around $4M.

The US Ethereum spot ETF saw close to $700 million in net inflows in the week ending August 21, marking the highest level since October 2025. Net inflows were approximately $30.85M, $71.47M, $189.15M, $220.77M, and $185M from Monday to Friday, driving the total net inflows from $11.45B to $12.15B. During the same period, Ethereum rose from around $1,900 to above $2,500, with a weekly increase of over 28%.

Institutional demand for Ethereum continues to strengthen. The US Ethereum spot ETF keeps attracting funds, showing traditional investors are increasing their ETH exposure through regulated financial products. If ETF net inflows remain high, the market's tradable supply may further tighten, providing support for Ethereum's price.
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