The Senate is set to begin the process for a vote in September, with the new account predicting that the Clarity Act will not pass this year.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has bet $92.1k on "no" for the outcome "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026," with an average buy probability of 73.5%. The current probability of "yes" is 24.5%.

Currently, the CLARITY Act remains stalled due to disagreements over the government official digital asset interest restrictions clause. The Senate's current agenda indicates that senators will resume formal business on September 14, with a procedural vote on the motion to consider the bill scheduled for September 15. The bill will then proceed to amendment consideration, a final vote, reconciliation of text between the two chambers, and presidential signature.

On the 20th, Reuters reported that Trump once again has urged Congress to pass a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act. Several Democratic legislators and some Republican lawmakers are pushing to enhance the public official digital asset interest restrictions. Ethical controversies stemming from the Trump family's digital asset business continue to influence bipartisan negotiations.

On the 21st, the U.S. law firm Venable analyzed that the Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed the "Digital Asset Regulatory Rule," covering token financing exemptions, disclosure of information, and investment contract safe harbors. Venable believes that these rules can offer some regulatory certainty in case the CLARITY Act is not passed.

On the 22nd, an Ipsos poll reported that 63% of U.S. respondents believe it is inappropriate for the Trump family to profit from digital asset projects, and 69% think their business interests are influencing government decisions. Senator Kiersten Gillibrand has called for a ban on incumbent officials and their spouses issuing or promoting tokens, a proposal the White House has yet to accept. Reports suggest that ethical provisions have become a key obstacle to the bill securing 60 votes, and the political pressure of the upcoming midterm elections will further compress the legislative timeline for this year.
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