Trump Intensely Tweets Crypto Signals, Predicts "Fed Chair to Mention Bitcoin in Next Week's Speech" Potential Gains Over 5x

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Powell mentioning Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in the Jackson Hole speech" is 20.5%.

Per the rules, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell must say any of the designated English words - "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" - during his speech at 10:00 am on August 28th (US Eastern Time). If he only discusses financial innovation, payment systems, stablecoins, or blockchain without mentioning these three words, it will still settle as a "No" outcome.

The Kansas City Fed announced that the theme of this year's Jackson Hole symposium from August 27th to 29th is "Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy Implications," with Powell scheduled to speak on August 28th. Therefore, the rationale for a "Yes" outcome is: when Powell discusses payment innovation, financial stability, or regulatory boundaries, he will casually mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. However, this is merely an inference based on the policy environment and the theme of the speech and does not imply that Powell has revealed the content of his speech.

On the other hand, during his July testimony to Congress, Powell mainly discussed inflation, interest rates, and Fed policy without expressing a clear stance on cryptocurrency. He has also stated previously that he has not yet decided what policy signal he will convey at Jackson Hole.
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