The Central Bank continues to buy gold and dollars, putting pressure on yields, Smart Money predicts that the gold price will struggle to break $4,600 this month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a Sharp has placed a $1.1k bet on "Will Gold Break $4,600 this Month?" choosing "No," with an average buy-in probability of 83.0%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 52.5%.

Avamax has invested $1.1k, with the top-performing category in this market being Commodities, yielding a net profit of $55.5k. Avamax has a win rate of 163/190 (86%) out of 190 settled trades in this category, with 10 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount for Avamax is $3.3k.

The rationale on the "Yes" side is based on gold's structural demand and safe-haven properties. The World Gold Council's report for Q2 released on July 30 showed that global central banks bought a net of 288.9 tons of gold in Q2, reaching a historical high for the quarter; as of the first half of 2026, 89% of responding central banks are anticipating an increase in global gold reserves over the next 12 months. A market report from the World Gold Council on August 11 also stated that the People's Bank of China added around 20 tons of gold in July, extending its consecutive buying streak to 21 months, with geopolitical and Strait of Hormuz uncertainties continuing to support safe-haven demand.

The "No" side argues that for gold to push further from the recent $4,400–$4,450 range to $4,600, an additional 3%–5% surge is still required. On August 18, Reuters reported that gold briefly fell below $4,400, pressured by a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and an increase in oil prices; at that time, the market was also awaiting the minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting to gauge the interest rate path.

The upcoming key variables are the U.S. PCE data on August 26 and the Jackson Hole conference from August 27 to 29. If the inflation data softens, and the dollar and real yields retreat, gold could quickly surge with central bank buying and risk-off sentiment; if the data overheats and yields continue to rise, the "No" camp's resistance would persist.
---------------------------------
See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN