Update: New Account Buys $320,000 Worth of Assets, Predicts United Russia Party to Win the Most Seats

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account mentioned in the report has added $320.2k to the position on “In the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections, will United Russia Party (ER) win the most seats?” with an average buy-in probability of 75.0%. The current probability of “Yes” stands at 71.5%.

A survey by the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center in early August showed that United Russia Party has 32% support, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has 10.4%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia has 9.3%, and the New People’s Party has 8.6%. United Russia Party's key candidates include Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, Russian-Ukrainian War veteran Vladislav Golovin, and war correspondent Yevgeny Podubny.

In the 2025 local elections, the New People’s Party nominated 1 candidate in 30 regional governor direct elections, nominated 48 candidates in elections for 471 local council seats, and ultimately secured 1 seat. Riddle Russia attributes its main shortcomings to a weak regional network and a lack of well-known local political figures. United Russia Party has fielded Lavrov, Sobyanin, Golovin, Podubny, and other national figures, with Putin's support and the ruling party's organizational system continuing to influence seat distribution.

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