Strait Negotiations Deadlocked, Petro Smart Money Predicts WTI Crude to Rise to $90 Within the Month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money has wagered $36.8k on the question "Will WTI Crude Oil touch $90 this month?", with an average buy probability of 33.0%. The current probability of "Yes" is 45.5%.

boyau has also wagered $36.8k and is most active in the Oil category, with a net profit of $788k. Out of 208 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 119/208 (57%), with 45 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251-$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $425, making this current investment 86.6 times that median.

In early Asian trading today, WTI has further risen to around $85.34 per barrel. Brent Crude has climbed to near $91 per barrel, with Middle East supply risks continuing to support international oil prices. On the 18th, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Kahlili stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the U.S. meets conditions such as lifting the port blockades and oil sanctions. Trump mentioned the same day that there are currently no negotiations scheduled or taking place between the U.S. and Iran. Reuters data indicates that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped to around 2 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency estimated on August 12 that global oil supply will decrease by about 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026, leading to a global supply gap of around 1.27 million barrels per day. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that the severe restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will continue throughout August. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ending August 7.
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