Nomura Initiates Coverage of TreeTech with a 'Buy' Rating, Highlighting Strong Points in Cost, Market Share, and Iteration Speed

BlockBeats News, August 19th, Nomura Securities today first included Ubtech Robotics in its coverage and gave it a "Buy" rating.

Nomura's core judgment is that Ubtech Robotics has transitioned from a "technology showcase company" to a "scale delivery company." The report states that the company's humanoid robot shipments are expected to exceed 5,500 units in 2025, ranking first globally; the revenue CAGR from 2026 to 2028 is expected to reach 122%. Against the backdrop of AI applications extending from software models to the physical world, robotics companies that can sustain shipments, reduce costs, and iterate will find it easier to obtain a valuation premium.

Cost advantage is Nomura's first bullish thesis on Ubtech. The report points out that Ubtech has a high degree of self-research in key hardware such as motors, reducers, drivers, encoders, LiDAR, and power management, with outsourced components accounting for only about 10% to 20% of the total cost. This enables the company to launch products at lower prices while maintaining a high gross margin. By 2025, the company's main business gross margin has risen to about 60%, and the humanoid robot gross margin has reached 63.2%.

Rapid iteration is the second key point. Nomura stated that Ubtech has launched 4 generations of humanoid robot products in 26 months, from H1, G1 to R1, H2, with the product matrix covering consumer-grade, research and education, and industrial applications. Low-cost products will lead to more shipments, and more shipments will generate real physical interaction data, further training models and algorithms. This cycle will be a key factor in the company's expansion of its competitive advantage.

The report also warns that Ubtech faces certain risks. U.S. regulatory restrictions will affect the entry of new models into the U.S. market, while the U.S. market is expected to contribute approximately 13.3% of its revenue in 2025. More importantly, the current demand for humanoid robots is still mainly driven by research, education, entertainment, and government procurement, with a low percentage for industrial and commercial applications. Nomura believes that the real focus in the future will be whether industrial customers can generate repeat orders, which will determine whether the demand for humanoid robots can shift from thematic investments to real volume.

In terms of financial forecasts, Nomura expects Ubtech's revenue to reach 2.687 billion yuan, 5.396 billion yuan, and 13.184 billion yuan in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 58%, 101%, and 144%. In terms of valuation, Nomura uses a 25x forecasted P/S ratio for 2027, significantly higher than the average level of the Chinese robotics industry. The reason is that Ubtech has higher growth, a purer business nature, and the rarity of already achieving profitability.