Market Prediction丨 Iran and Oman Advance New Channel Arrangement, Smart Money Predicts Resumption of Normal Traffic in the Hormuz Strait Within the Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 savvy investors have put in $17.0k on the question "Will the Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by 2026?", with an average buy-in probability of 41.2%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 35.5%.

mr.ozi has invested $12.9k, with the top relevant category in this market being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $355k. Out of 558 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 398/558 (71%), with 117 trades where the buy price was under $0.8 and the sell price was over $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351-$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $2.0k.
tourists has invested $4.0k, with the top relevant category in this market also being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $184k. Out of 305 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 197/305 (65%), with 50 trades where the buy price was under $0.8 and the sell price was over $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251-$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $361, and this investment is 11.1 times that median.

On the 17th, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a new ship passage route map, with both countries finalizing a joint statement. The current plan arranges for incoming ships to use the route closer to the Iranian side and outgoing ships to use the route closer to the Omani side. During the interim arrangement, ships will not be required to pay passage fees, and this plan will be used to restore commercial ship traffic.

The 60-day interim framework signed between the U.S. and Iran in June has expired. On the 18th, Trump stated that the U.S. has not engaged in or arranged any negotiations with Iran, and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect. Iran has demanded full compliance by the U.S. with the previous framework, with conditions involving port blockades, oil sanctions, asset freezes, and military actions.

The international energy supply chain has begun to adjust to the long-term constrained environment of the strait. China COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Group have already shifted some of their Middle East transport operations outside the Gulf, with these deployments extending into mid-September. Reuters reported on the 18th that the energy market is repricing for a prolonged crisis, with transportation costs, refining margins, and commercial inventories all affected by the restricted Middle East supply.
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