Analysis: $1.8 Trillion “Capitulation” Could Trigger 30% Bitcoin Price Plunge

BlockBeats News, August 18th. Recently, Bitcoin has been trading sideways, and the market is closely watching the soaring global bond yields. Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, stated that Bitcoin's recent volatility is at a historically low level, and extreme market conditions may emerge in the coming months. Historical data shows that in similar situations, Bitcoin's median absolute price swing over the following 60 days is about 30%.

This week, global bond yields have surged significantly, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rising to its highest level since 2002, the 20-year yield hitting a new high since 2006, and the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007. The market believes that factors such as the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, rising AI infrastructure costs, high oil prices, and monetary policy uncertainty are collectively driving up long-term yields.

Yardeni Research stated that the market has not yet entered a "panic" state but is closely monitoring whether the so-called "bond vigilantes" will reassert dominance in the market. Bitunix analysts pointed out that the market's focus has shifted from speculation on Fed rate hikes or cuts to long-term U.S. bond yields, energy prices, inflation risks, and global risk premiums.

Furthermore, Koinly CEO Robin Singh stated that Bitcoin may experience another sharp decline in the coming months, possibly dropping to the mid $50,000 range; if historical patterns persist, the market may need to go through one final round of "panic selling" to confirm the true bottom of this cycle.