The US is preparing to restart shuttle diplomacy, Smart Money predicts Russian-Ukrainian diplomatic talks this month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $15.4k on "Will Russia and Ukraine engage in any diplomatic talks this month?", with an average buying probability of 39.0% and the current "Yes" probability at 12.5%.

whig has also invested $15.4k, with the most relevant category being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $86.4k in this market. Out of 384 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 246/384 (64%), with 121 trades where the buying price was less than $0.8 and the selling price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.301-$0.45), the median of their historical investments is $472, and this specific investment is 32.6 times that median.

The U.S. is pushing for a restart of Russian-Ukrainian diplomatic efforts. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on August 11 that Kyiv had presented a plan to U.S. negotiators to end the war. Both Russia and Ukraine have mentioned the expected visits of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to the two countries. The last time these two American representatives visited Moscow was in January, and this trip may reestablish channels for proposed dialogue between the two nations.

Ukraine submitted a proposal to Russia through a third party on August 13, suggesting a cessation of attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea. Turkey has also proposed a pause in Black Sea military operations to both nations. On August 14, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that they had not received a formal proposal and rejected implementing a ceasefire based on the current terms. The security of Black Sea shipping and ports has become a key focus of recent mediation efforts.
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