Analysis: Bitcoin Low Volatility Could Signal a Major Rally, 30% Price Swing in the Next 60 Days

BlockBeats News, August 18th, Fundstrat Global Advisors' Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell stated that Bitcoin's recent 30-day volatility has dropped to a historic low, indicating that the market may be on the verge of a significant price swing.

Through analyzing 8 similar low volatility periods in the past, Fundstrat found that the median absolute price change of Bitcoin in the following 60 days was 30.2%. Out of these 8 periods, 4 saw an increase and 4 saw a decrease, suggesting that this metric can only predict the magnitude of the price movement, not the specific direction.

Based on Bitcoin's current price of around $64,000, a 30% increase could potentially push the price to around $83,200, while a 30% pullback could bring it down to around $44,800.

Farrell pointed out that the recent uptrend in Bitcoin has been driven in part by short covering rather than significant new buying. Since late Friday, the open interest in Bitcoin-denominated futures has dropped by about 8%, indicating that some traders are unwinding their bearish positions.

Furthermore, Farrell believes that the ongoing rise in real bond yields could be a key factor in triggering Bitcoin's next major bull run. If real yields continue to climb, it could disrupt Bitcoin's current low-volatility consolidation phase. Currently priced around $64,000, Bitcoin has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 27% since 2026. The market may face a clear directional bias in the future, but short-term uncertainty remains.