BIS Warns of AI Bubble Risk: Core Company Valuations at Elevated Levels, Risk Premium Sharply Compressed, Hidden Risks in Recurring Financing

BlockBeats News, August 18th, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stated in its annual economic report that AI optimism over the past year has supported global growth and risk assets, driving accelerated semiconductor procurement, data center construction, and power infrastructure investment, while also keeping financial conditions loose. However, as the scale of AI investment expands, risks are moving from stock market valuations to corporate bonds, private credit, and supply chain finance.

The BIS warned that valuations of AI core companies are at high levels, with the market's implied long-term earnings growth rate significantly above historical benchmarks. At the same time, the risk premium of large US stocks has notably compressed, indicating that the risk compensation received by investors is decreasing. If AI investment returns fall short of expectations, or if inflation forces interest rates higher again, the stock market will face more severe revaluation pressure.

The BIS also specifically mentioned that insufficient transparency in AI financing can amplify risks. Some chipmakers and cloud providers are engaging in "circular financing" through equity investments, long-term procurement commitments, computing power leasing, and data center sale-and-leaseback arrangements. Some assets may also face risks of double pledging. In the event of a significant correction in the equity market, corporate credit risks will be reassessed, credit spreads may widen, and the financing environment could tighten further.