U.S.-Iran Negotiations at Standstill, Smart Money Predicts WTI to Rise to $85 Within the Month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a Smart Money has placed a $76.4k bet on "Will August 2026 WTI Crude Oil (WTI) touch (HIGH)$85?" with an average buy-in probability of 49.2%. The current probability for "Yes" is 64.5%.

boyau has also bet $76.4k, with the most relevant category being Financials, with a net profit of $624k. Out of 147 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 82/147 (56%), with 31 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was more than $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.401-$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $16.4k.

Today, WTI Crude Oil futures rose to around $82.83, with a cumulative increase of over 5% last week. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that Iran has not yet decided to resume negotiations with the United States. The U.S. government is considering escalating economic pressure on Iran, and the geopolitical situation continues to affect oil prices in August.

Previously released data showed an unexpected decline in U.S. retail sales in July, leading traders to reduce their expectations of further Fed rate hikes. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to 99.519 on August 17, nearing the monthly low. The weakening dollar is providing macro support for dollar-denominated WTI.

On the 12th, the IEA forecasted a daily global oil supply reduction of 4.3 million barrels in 2026, with a market gap of around 1.27 million barrels per day. On the same day, OPEC revised the global demand increment down to 580,000 barrels per day. China's July manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, and global demand performance remains a key variable for oil price increases.
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