Is this year set to be the hottest on record? Climate experts bet on it as current temperatures double down.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a Smart Money invested $9,800 in "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?" option, with an average buy-in probability of 34.3%. The current probability for this option is 69.5%.

russell110320 invested $9,800, and the top-performing category in this market is Climate & Science, with a net profit of $35,500. Out of 30 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 26/30 (87%), with 6 trades meeting the criteria of buying below $0.8 and selling above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251-0.3), the median historical investment for russell110320 is $643, making this investment 15.2 times larger than the median.

2024 was the hottest year on record, with the average global temperature from 2023 to 2025 being about 1.48°C higher than pre-industrial levels. According to Berkeley Earth, the global average temperature in July was 1.56°C higher than the average from 1850 to 1900, making it the second-hottest July on record. The institution predicts a 69% likelihood of 2026 being the hottest year on record, with an estimated temperature increase between 1.52°C and 1.65°C for the year.

Statistics from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that the global surface temperature from January to July 2026 ranks as the 3rd warmest in history. NOAA forecasts a high probability of 2026 entering the top 5 hottest years, with most models currently indicating the 3rd or 4th position. The global surface temperature in July was 1.18°C higher than the 20th-century average and tied with July 2024 in NOAA's record for the hottest July.

The end-of-year temperature trend will be influenced by the development of El Niño. NOAA stated on the 13th that there is over a 90% likelihood of El Niño developing into an extreme event in the fall/winter of 2026. Copernicus data shows that the non-polar ocean surface temperature reached 20.96°C in July, setting a new record for the month, with the equatorial Pacific Ocean continuing to warm up.
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