Morgan Stanley's Circle Holding Increases Nearly 6-Fold, Yet Rating Downgraded to "Underweight" with Target Price Lowered to $38

BlockBeats News, August 15th, Morgan Stanley downgraded Circle (CRCL) stock from "Hold" to "Underweight" on August 3rd, and significantly reduced the target price from $106 to $38. Analysts stated that the downgrade was mainly due to the shrinking USDC circulation, which exposed Circle's high sensitivity to reserve income.

At the same time, the company's business structure is shifting towards a lower-margin transaction revenue model. The report also lowered its 2027 and 2028 USDC scale forecasts by about 33% and 44%, respectively, and expects the company's GAAP earnings per share to be about 3% and 20% below market consensus.

However, Morgan Stanley's latest 13F filing shows that as of June 30th, its holdings of Circle shares surged from approximately 1.46 million shares to 8.32 million shares, a significant increase in the second quarter.

This means that while Morgan Stanley publicly downgraded Circle's rating and target price in early August, signaling caution, its disclosed holdings as of the end of the second quarter showed a substantial increase. It is important to note that the 13F disclosure reflects positions as of June 30th and may not indicate whether the positions were adjusted before or after the August rating downgrade. The market is now focused on the significant disparity between institutional research views and historical holding disclosures.