Analysis: 41.5% of BTC purchased in 2025 has been sold, reaching a similar on-chain activity level to the past two bear markets

BlockBeats News, August 14th. On-chain analyst Murphy stated that all BTC purchased in 2025 is currently in a loss position. Every time the 2025 cohort's supply decreases, all movements are sell-offs except for wallet transfers. As of today, there are still 4.77 million BTC purchased in 2025, a 41.5% drop from the peak in December last year.

The slope of the downward trend has shown two distinct phases: a rapid decline before February this year, followed by a slight slowdown post-February but still maintaining a certain slope. This cohort represents the largest supply-side in the current market. Compared to data from 2022 to 2024, it is easy to see that chips with unrealized gains have mostly passed the steep slope of the decline. Even if the price falls again, the change in the quantity of these chips is no longer significant. In other words, the potential chips have completed turnover.

From the past two bear markets, during the 2022 bear market bottom, the number of chips from the 2021 peak decreased by 51%; during the 2018 bear market bottom, the number of chips from the 2017 peak dropped by 62%. The analyst personally believes that this round's bottom will see a maximum drop of 50-60%, with the current figure at 41%.