Analysis: By 2025, the high-price BTC chips have decreased by 41.5%, potentially alleviating the most significant market supply pressure

BlockBeats News, August 14th - On-chain analyst Murphy stated that currently, the majority of the chips bought in 2025 and still held are at a loss. Therefore, apart from wallet migrations, the reduction in the scale of the 2025 chips most likely implies that holders are cutting losses and selling.

The data shows that as of now, there are approximately 4.77 million BTC chips left from the 2025 purchases, a 41.5% drop from the peak in December last year. Looking at the downward trend, this group has gone through two phases: rapid chip depletion before February this year, and a noticeable slowdown in the rate of decline after February, but still maintaining a certain slope.

Murphy believes that the 2025 chips may be the largest potential supply side in the current market. In contrast, BTC chips formed in 2024, 2023, and 2022 have largely released the overhang of bag holders at high levels due to still having unrealized gains. The downward slope of the curve is gradually flattening, indicating that the selling pressure from long-term holders is weakening.

Historical data shows that during the bottom phase of the past two bear markets, high-level chips have seen significant declines: during the 2022 bear market bottom, the high-level chips purchased in 2021 decreased by about 51%; during the 2018 bear market bottom, the high-level chips from 2017 decreased by about 62%.

If we refer to the historical cycles, Murphy believes that in this round's bear market bottom phase, the reduction in high-level chips from 2025 could be in the range of 50%-60%. The current 41.5% decline indicates that there is still some room for further unwinding. However, this assessment does not yet consider the BTC bought by spot ETFs and institutions like MicroStrategy. These chips are mostly in long-term locked positions, which may reduce actual market supply pressure.