glassnode: Bitcoin Enters Late-Stage Bear Market Compression Phase, But True Demand Signal Yet to Emerge

BlockBeats News, August 13th, Glassnode published a market insight stating that Bitcoin is currently trapped between the median realized price (around $63,000) and the short-term holder cost basis (around $68,700). Spot volume hit the lowest level since 2019, putting the market in an extremely quiet and compressed state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and the stock market hitting new highs, Bitcoin showed almost no response, indicating a significant lack of demand.

On the other hand, selling pressure is diminishing: profit-taking supply is nearing previous bear market bottoms, the seller exhaustion index hit a cyclical low, and the SOPR after adjustment has been rejected near breakeven nine times. Meanwhile, buyers remain consistently absent, ETF net inflows are minimal, coins are still moving to exchanges; derivative leverage has already taken large long positions in advance, open interest relative to volume is high, and the buy-side of the order book is thinning.

Glassnode believes the key points to watch are around $68,700 to the upside and around $58,500 to the downside: Effectively breaking above the former, accompanied by volume and ETF inflows recovery, may confirm improvement; however, breaching the latter could lead to accelerated downside under thin buy support and crowded longs. Glassnode remains cautious overall, seeing this as a late-stage bear market compression phase with no clear signals of true demand yet.