Weekly Macro Outlook: Fed's Rate Hike Dilemma Shifts to Inflation, July CPI Takes the Stage, Semiconductor Earnings Season Nears End

BlockBeats News, August 8th. In the past week, as the dawn of the resumption of traffic in the Hormuz Strait emerged, driving oil prices sharply lower, coupled with the unexpected decrease in U.S. July nonfarm payrolls and downward revisions to data from the previous two months, the market saw the probability of a September Fed rate hike plummet from about 55% to 44%. The three major U.S. stock indexes all achieved their largest weekly gains since mid-April, with spot gold surging and rising above $4370 per ounce. Next week, as the U.S. semiconductor earnings season gradually draws to a close, the AI technology sector remains highly sensitive to the performance of companies such as Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco (CSCO), and CoreWeave (CRWV) set to announce their results.

Next week, the focus will shift to inflation data, with U.S. CPI and Core CPI for July directly testing whether rate hike expectations can continue to cool off on Wednesday, Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, and Retail Sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. There are still internal divisions within the Fed, with Chairman Powell remaining silent. Ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, the market will closely watch officials' speeches and independence risks. A summary of key events next week is as follows:

Monday

Bank of Japan releases summary of July Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

Tuesday

U.S. ADP Employment Change up to July 25th

Wednesday

CoreWeave (CRWV) earnings call at 5:00 (UTC+8) (post-market close on Tuesday)

U.S. CPI and Core CPI for July

U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories up to August 7th

Thursday

Cisco (CSCO) earnings call at 4:30 (UTC+8) (post-market close on Wednesday)

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims up to August 8th and U.S. PPI for July

2026 FOMC Voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester speak

2027 FOMC Voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin speak on economic outlook

Friday

Applied Materials (AMAT) earnings call at 4:30 (UTC+8) (post-market close on Thursday)

U.S. Retail Sales for July, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August (preliminary), one-year inflation rate expectation (preliminary), and Business Inventories for June