SemiAnalysis Downplays Google DeepMind: No Longer at the Forefront of AI Research

According to Dynamic Beating monitoring, SemiAnalysis's latest report concludes that Google DeepMind is no longer at the forefront of AI labs, and the probability of achieving future SOTA has dropped to zero.

It is believed that DeepMind is losing both top talent and computing power. Google's Jeff Dean, Sanjay Ghemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals have recently collectively left the company. Previously, Gemini co-lead Noam Shazeer has switched to OpenAI, and Nobel laureate John Jumper has joined Anthropic.

Computing power has also been heavily sold to competitors. SemiAnalysis estimates that from the third quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2027, over 20% of TPU shipments will be directly sold to Anthropic, effectively locking a significant amount of scarce computing power to Gemini's rival in the long term.

Ultimately, SemiAnalysis attributes the issue to Google's "bureaucratic, slow, strategically conservative" organizational culture. It even draws a comparison between today's Google and IBM and Intel: while the technical capabilities remain strong and the potential to earn more money still exists, the toughest and most adventurous technological race may no longer be the company's top priority.