Manufacturing Jumps to Over 4-Year High, Fed Smart Money Predicts September Rate Hike

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 2 savvy investors have put in $33.0k on the event "Will the Federal Reserve raise the interest rate by 25 basis points after the September 2026 meeting?" with an average buying probability of 55.5%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 54.5%.

· -nkt- has invested $28.1k, with the most relevant category being the Fed Rate, with a net profit of $24.6k in this category. Out of a total of 11 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 9/11 (82%), with 3 trades having a buying price below $0.8 and a selling price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $40.7k.
· Eatpraylove has invested $4.9k, with the most relevant category being Politics, with a net profit of $446k in this category. Out of a total of 1092 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 624/1092 (57%), with 141 trades having a buying price below $0.8 and a selling price above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.451-$0.6), the median historical investment amount is $1.2k.

The U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.3 to 55.6, reaching the highest level since May 2022. The new orders index increased to 56.7. The employment index rose to 52.8, with manufacturing employment re-entering the expansion zone after 33 months. The input price index recorded 71.1, and the supplier delivery index rose to 58.9. Companies reported sustained high costs for energy, transportation, metals, and electronic components.

New York Fed President John Williams stated on the 3rd that the Fed will take action to raise rates if inflation does not slow down. The Fed's preferred PCE price index rose 3.7% year-on-year in June, with inflation remaining above 2% for over 5 years. The U.S. Treasury Department on the same day increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $739.0 billion. Today, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note stands at 4.684%.

Disclaimer: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain time.

Accounts:
0x43405b1b3dee23baf8284b3bcfd79930600b64c4
0xc02147dee42356b7a4edbb1c35ac4ffa95f61fa8

Total Investment: $33.0k
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