Bitunix Analyst:Cooler Inflation Data Doesn't Change the True Source of Pressure for Global Assets

BlockBeats News, July 31st. US June PCE surprised to the downside as the month-over-month print turned negative, core PCE rose just 0.1%, and annualized GDP growth also came in below market expectations. On the surface, this appears to provide evidence of both cooler inflation and a slowing economy. However, when decomposing the GDP breakdown, private final demand, consumption, and AI-related corporate investment all remain strong—signaling that underlying economic momentum has not visibly deteriorated. This explains why markets did not broadly reprice for easing on the weaker data, and instead kept their focus on policy credibility and the global cost of capital.

Even more notable is that the Japanese government is suspected of jointly conducting FX intervention with the US, while Korea has simultaneously reported dollar-selling operations. The Bank of Japan held rates but still had committee members advocating for a hike, and the Bank of England now has three MPC members supporting a hike as well. This shows that even as central banks face inflation and FX pressure, their stance on monetary policy remains cautious—even hawkish. In other words, the global liquidity environment has not fundamentally changed simply because a single US inflation print cooled—tight financial conditions are being maintained through multiple, different channels.

Meanwhile, tech-sector fundamentals remain solid. Amazon's AWS revenue beat expectations, Oracle continues to expand its partnership with Google, and OpenAI has again reduced its model prices—reflecting that AI competition is gradually extending from model capability toward cost efficiency and enterprise adoption penetration. In contrast, Apple's relatively weak China market and services performance reflects that terminal consumer demand remains divergent—and the valuation gap between AI infrastructure beneficiaries and consumer hardware makers may widen further.

Looking ahead, what markets truly need to observe is not just whether the US will hike or cut—it is whether major global central banks are simultaneously maintaining tight financial conditions through rates, FX intervention, and policy communication. Should Japanese hike expectations continue to warm and Asian central banks continue intervening in FX markets, global carry-trade flows and dollar liquidity could keep readjusting. AI investment and corporate profitability, meanwhile, will remain the key fundamentals supporting risk assets—and the tug-of-war between these two forces is expected to keep third-quarter market volatility at relatively elevated levels.