AI Trading Shows Divergence, with the 30-Day Correlation between Major US Capital Expenditure Companies and the Semiconductor Index Approaching Zero

BlockBeats News, July 24th, data shows that the 30-day correlation between major U.S. capital expenditure companies and the Semiconductor Index (SOX) has dropped to near zero, the lowest level in at least 4.5 years, sharply declining from +0.78 in April, well below the average +0.60 since 2022.

Since early June, semiconductor stocks have risen while AI infrastructure spending giants' stock prices have fallen, indicating that investors no longer see chip manufacturers and hyperscale data center builders as the same trade, with chipmakers benefiting from AI demand while spenders face scrutiny over returns.

Analysts believe that the next phase of AI trades will be determined by profitability rather than investment scale, and hyperscalers need to demonstrate that massive spending can generate sufficient returns.