Citrini View: NVIDIA to Benefit in the Short Term from China's Open-Source AI Prosperity, with Structural Risk from Long-Term Compute Independence

BlockBeats News, July 23rd — Citrini analyst Jukan published a retort to the view that "China's open-source model is irrelevant to NVIDIA," pointing out that the prosperity of China's open-source AI is essentially reinforcing NVIDIA's dominant position. China currently still uses NVIDIA GPUs to train models and releases versions optimized for NVIDIA hardware. Therefore, when models such as DeepSeek V4 and Kimi K3 are inferred, NVIDIA GPUs remain the most advantageous platform — no one would run these models' inferences on TPUs or Trainium.

This dual dimension protects NVIDIA's moat: first, by continuing to occupy the optimal platform position in the inference market; second, by indirectly suppressing the motivation of mega-scale cloud providers to develop in-house ASICs to replace NVIDIA GPUs. Neocloud service providers that rely on NVIDIA GPUs for inference business also benefit from this, as the prosperity of China's open-source models provides them with a sustained source of computational power demand.

Jukan pointed out that the real structural risk lies in the long term. If China achieves true computational independence and no longer relies on NVIDIA, the consequences will be far more than just losing the Chinese market itself. NVIDIA's dominant position will be significantly weakened, and the relative competitiveness of alternative solutions such as TPUs and Trainium will be enhanced. This will pose a challenge to the Neocloud ecosystem, which NVIDIA considers a key strategic asset.