Oil Price Nears $100, Smart Money in Rate Markets Predicts Fed Hike in July

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has placed a $4,900 bet on "Will the Federal Reserve raise the upper limit of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points after the July 2026 meeting?" with an average purchase probability of 23.2%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 24.1%.

Address 0x9bcada74 has invested $4,900 and is most active in the Fed Rate category, with a net profit of $70,500. Out of 21 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 14/21 (67%), with 2 trades meeting the criteria of buying below $0.8 and selling above $0.95.

Following a renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict, Brent crude oil has risen to a six-week high, the 2-year US Treasury yield has reached 4.301%, marking a 17-month high. CME data indicates that the market's pricing of a 25 basis point rate hike at the July Fed meeting has increased from 25.7% a day ago to 33.7%. The average US gasoline price has surpassed $4 per gallon, and if the Fed acts, the federal funds rate range will shift from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%.

However, an immediate rate hike in July still significantly differs from institutional consensus. In a Reuters survey on the 21st, all 104 economists expected the rate to remain unchanged this time, with 78 predicting no adjustments throughout the year. US crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 2 million barrels, providing a short-term cushion to oil prices. The risk supporting a rate hike lies in the ongoing energy shock: Reuters analysts doubled the 2026 global oil supply gap forecast to 1.5 million barrels per day on the 22nd, with Brent crude rising by approximately 28% in July. If Brent oil price continues to approach $100 and elevates inflation expectations, the likelihood of the Fed under Powell acting preemptively will also rise.

Note: Based on their historical trading pattern, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0x9bcada74fbcaa331afecdf7e861fbc9532ecca1f
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