Gold, S&P Near Year-to-Date Highs Lose Momentum, Bitcoin's 24% Year-to-Date Decline Signals Potential Future Opportunities?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the current probability of "Has Bitcoin Outperformed Gold and the S&P 500 This Year?" being "Yes" is 17%.

This trading event is aimed at comparing the full-year price performance of Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and gold. Based on a unified snapshot as of the New York close on July 22, the S&P 500 is up 9.5% for the year, gold is down 4.1%, and Bitcoin is down 24.8%.

Gold, buoyed by its strong performance in the early-year safe-haven rally, had its "Best Performing Asset of the Year" probability boosted to 71% in March. Moving into mid-2026, increased capital expenditure in AI, chips, and cloud computing has lifted sentiment in the U.S. stock market, with the leading probability for the S&P 500 rising continuously from 14% in April to the current 67%.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has emerged as the most pronounced laggard among the three asset classes. However, as of July 22, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen six consecutive days of net inflows, totaling approximately $779 million since July 13.
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