Trump Threatens to Strike Iran's Nuclear Facilities, Interest Rate Market Smart Money Predicts Fed Hike in 2026

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money players have invested $2.6k in "Will the Fed raise interest rates in 2026?" — with an average buy-in probability of 59.9%, and the current "Yes" probability at 60.5%.

· Ahpo invested $1.5k, with the top-related market being Fed Rate, netting $13.9k. Out of 105 settled trades in this market, the win rate is 94/105 (90%), with 6 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and sell price was above $0.95.
· Tenebrus7 invested $1.1k, with the top-related market being Economic System, netting $8.3k. Out of 85 settled trades in this market, the win rate is 64/85 (75%), with 13 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.65), the median of historical investment amounts is $4.8k.

On the 21st, Trump stated that the U.S. is "very likely to soon" strike Iran's Pickaxe underground nuclear facility and will strongly hit any site used for nuclear development. If the Houthis blockade the Red Sea, the U.S. will also "handle that." Today, Reuters reported that the U.S. military conducted the 11th consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, while Iran attacked U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and the Houthis threatened to attack Saudi oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude immediately rose to $91.51 per barrel, and WTI rose to $84.64 per barrel. International oil prices have risen by about 30% in weeks, with the U.S. average gasoline price surpassing $4 per gallon again. If the conflict continues and both the Hormuz and Mandeb Straits are blocked, energy and transportation costs could drive U.S. inflation higher once more.

Expectations for monetary policy are also shifting. A Reuters survey on the 21st revealed that out of 67 economists surveyed, 44 believe there is a higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike in 2026, compared to the previous month where most thought the likelihood was lower, although all 104 respondents still expect the July meeting to hold at 3.50%–3.75%, with 78 expecting no change throughout the year. Goldman Sachs noted on the same day that war and AI demands could keep U.S. inflation near 3% rather than 2%, with employment growth remaining above the level necessary to maintain a stable unemployment rate after the surge in oil prices.

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur and may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior after opening a position at some point.

Accounts:
0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8

Total Investment: $2.6k
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