The White House Reportedly Okays Ethics Waiver, 2 Sharp Money Predict Clarity Act Won't Become Law This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, two clever investors have put $2,300 on the "Will the 'Clarity Act' be signed into law in 2026" outcome, with an average buy-in probability of 66.4%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" stands at 42.5%.

Address 0x4a2be7a7 has invested $1,300, with the most relevant category being Politics, with a net profit of $67,200. Out of 553 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 213/553 (39%), with 156 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $1,300.

Address 0xdc4f0872 has invested $1,000, with the most relevant category also being Politics, with a net profit of $109,000. Out of 50 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 38/50 (76%), with 1 trade having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.

On July 21st, Beijing time, cryptocurrency journalist Eleanor Terrett and PunchbowlNews first reported that Trump had agreed to include ethics provisions in the "CLARITY Act"; The Block later cited industry sources confirming that the White House and the Republican side had reached an agreement on this part. For months, provisions restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from benefiting from the crypto industry have been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote.

At the time of reporting, the final text had not been made public, and the Democrats had not seen specific language; therefore, the so-called "obstacle cleared" is currently based on sources' negotiation progress and not a bipartisan public confirmation of a final agreement.

The "CLARITY Act" is not just a stablecoin bill but a cryptocurrency market structure bill: it seeks to delineate the regulatory boundaries of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for digital assets and establish a framework for trading platforms, brokers, customer asset protection, and compliance requirements. The bill passed the House in July 2025 by a vote of 294 to 134 and the Senate Banking Committee advanced a version in May of this year by 15 votes to 9.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior after opening positions.

Accounts:
0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20;
0xdc4f08727c65afc4731b75cf1ed265666b7b4652.
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