Bernstein Raises Robinhood Price Target to $160: Predicts Market Revenue Will Surpass Crypto Business

BlockBeats News, July 20th, investment bank Bernstein raised its target price for Robinhood (HOOD) from $130 to $160 and maintained an "Outperform" rating. The institution believes that Robinhood is poised to benefit from the development of emerging trading areas such as prediction markets, perpetual contracts, tokenized stocks, and hash rate-related markets, with the market size expected to exceed $70 billion in the next two years.

Bernstein expects the second quarter of 2026 to be the first quarter in which Robinhood's prediction market revenue exceeds its crypto business revenue. The institution's model shows that Robinhood's prediction market revenue for this quarter is approximately $150 million, a growth from the first quarter's approximately $104 million, while crypto trading revenue for the same period is expected to decrease by about 38% compared to the previous quarter.

Bernstein points out that since the launch of Rothera, Robinhood's prediction market trading platform licensed by the CFTC, at the end of May, it has processed over 3.5 billion contracts, with the World Cup-related market contributing about 93% of the trading volume. Currently, Rothera has become the world's fourth-largest prediction market platform, accounting for about 16% of Robinhood's event contract trading volume, with the remaining trading mainly completed through Kalshi.

The institution predicts that Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 64%, reaching $1.7 billion by 2028.

Meanwhile, Bernstein has lowered its 2026 crypto trading revenue expectations for Robinhood by 49%, citing lower-than-expected industry trading volume in the first half of the year. However, the institution believes that the weakness in the crypto market is more of a cyclical adjustment, and if Bitcoin's price rebounds, it could serve as an additional catalyst for growth.

Bernstein believes that Robinhood's greatest competitive advantage lies in its user distribution capability. The platform currently has approximately 27 million funded accounts and 14 million monthly active users, allowing it to quickly launch new trading products at a lower cost per customer acquisition.

In addition, Robinhood's Layer 2 network, Robinhood Chain, based on Arbitrum, went live on July 1st, with the total value locked (TVL) surpassing $4 billion, an annualized DEX trading volume of around $2 trillion, and on-chain fee revenue of about $50 million. Bernstein expects that new businesses such as prediction markets, perpetual contracts, and Robinhood Chain will contribute about 23% of the company's revenue in 2028.