This Year's World's Top Company Market Cap Battle: With only a 0.7% difference, 2 accounts with a 100% success rate predict NVIDIA to take the top spot this year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 2 sharp investors are betting on "Will NVIDIA become the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026?" with a total investment of $3.0k on the "Yes" side, with an average buying probability of 58.1%. The current probability for "Yes" is 54.5%.

Address 0x14a97722 has invested $1000 and is most active in the Technology category in this market, with a net profit of $1.2k. Out of 9 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 9/9 (100%), with 2 trades where the buying price was below $0.8 and the selling price was above $0.95.
Address 0x7d3e8164 has invested $2.0k and is most active in the Technology category in this market, with a net profit of $1.8k. Out of 11 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 11/11 (100%), with 4 trades where the buying price was below $0.8 and the selling price was above $0.95. Within a close cost range ($0.501-$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $100, and this current investment is 20.0 times that median.

As of now, NVIDIA has a market cap of approximately $4.947t, while Apple has around $4.915t. Through static calculations, Apple would need to rise by about 0.65% when NVIDIA remains static to catch up. On July 17th, Apple briefly exceeded NVIDIA's market cap during trading hours; on that day, NVIDIA fell by 2.21%, while Apple saw a slight increase of 0.14%.

NVIDIA's latest financial report shows a Q1 FY2027 revenue of around $81.6b, an 85% year-over-year growth; data center revenue is about $75.2b, a 92% YoY growth, and they have provided a revenue guidance of $91b±2% for the next quarter. Importantly, this guidance does not assume revenue from the China data center business; recent easing of H200 export permits to China, if shipments increase, could be an additional upside.

Apple's latest quarter revenue is about $111.2b, a 17% YoY growth, and they have added a $100b buyback authorization; the market is now recognizing its lighter AI strategy and the resilience of its service business. With just a $32b difference in market cap currently, a stronger-than-expected financial report, progress in AI products, or a pullback in NVIDIA's semiconductor division, all have the potential to regain the top spot.

Note: Based on past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening positions.

Accounts:
0x14a977225232c3599fdd55e412ed2aa02b5298b0
0x7d3e8164c0e39cad7c720a9996d1390229573074

Total Investment: $3.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN to see the future earlier.