ChangXin's IPO Performance Prediction Overview: Benchmarking against Micron to Potentially Reach ¥3 Trillion, AI Upswing Cycle to Foster a Rosy ¥5 Trillion Vision

BlockBeats News, July 19th, China's domestic storage chip leader ChangXin Memory Technology (CXMT) plans to officially list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 27, 2026, with an estimated initial market value of about 5800 billion yuan. ChangXin is expected to challenge the position of the world's third-largest DRAM supplier. The current forecasts for its market value performance after listing are as follows:

UBS's latest research report believes that the DRAM industry will be in short supply at least until the second quarter of 2028. This sustained high-demand outlook provides a key support for market expectations of ChangXin Technology achieving a trillion-yuan or even higher valuation.

Zhang Xiaorong, Director of DeepTech Research Institute, stated that assuming ChangXin's net profit this year is around hundreds of billions of yuan, with a reasonable PE ratio of 20-25 times, coupled with industry trends, it is highly probable that it can achieve a trillion-yuan market value after listing.

CNBC's technology analyst Daniel Haylor's view: ChangXin Technology is in a favorable position, especially benefiting from the severe shortage in the mobile memory market. The world's top three memory giants are shifting a large amount of capacity to the more profitable HBM field, further squeezing the supply of general DRAM. As a leading Chinese DRAM company, ChangXin is expected to achieve significant growth and valuation reassessment in this structural opportunity.

Senior investment banker Wang Ji Yue predicts that ChangXin Technology's post-listing valuation is expected to reach 2 to 3 trillion yuan, benchmarking against Micron, with Samsung Electronics and Micron's latest Price-Earnings Ratio (TTM) at 21.7 times and 21.3 times, respectively.

CITIC Securities' research report predicts that the shortage in storage will persist at least until 2027, with price increases throughout the entire year of 2026. The industry cycle logic reinforces institutional investors' optimistic judgment on ChangXin Technology's post-listing valuation of 2 to 3 trillion yuan.

Reuters' view: It is expected that its market value is likely to exceed 3 trillion yuan (about $443 billion), driven by the AI upcycle and self-sufficiency in technology, and may even reach 5 trillion yuan.

Several domestic Chinese brokerages unanimously predict that ChangXin Technology's post-listing market value is expected to challenge 2 to 3 trillion yuan, with key support factors including long-term demand for AI computing power, DRAM/HBM, its status as China's sole DRAM production platform, support from the national sovereign wealth fund, and domestic substitution logic. Some calculations suggest that a reasonable opening range is 2 to 2.5 trillion yuan.

Financial Times Analyst Forecast: Changxin Technology Valuation Expected to Soar to as High as 3 Trillion RMB, mainly driven by the AI-led surge in storage chip demand and the company's rapid expansion of market share in the global DRAM market, with international analysts optimistic about the company's growth story and structural opportunities.

Some optimistic institutions and certain brokerage industry analysts believe that, under the high prosperity and A-share semiconductor scarcity premium, Changxin Technology's market capitalization is expected to temporarily exceed 3 trillion and even reach 4 trillion RMB, potentially higher in an extreme scenario. This view is based on the 2026 high net profit expectations and the growth stock valuation logic compared to international giants.

Third-party research market professional estimated data shows that, in the medium to long term, under the long-term dividend brought by AI infrastructure, specific scenarios include assuming revenue near or exceeding 100 billion RMB and net profit of 10 to 15 billion RMB by 2026-2027, valuing at a P/E ratio of 50-100 times high prosperity, the secondary market may assign a monopoly leader valuation, and the long-term steady-state market value is highly likely to fall in the range of 16 to 22 trillion.