Analyst: Bitcoin Bear Market May Be Nearing End, Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Dips to $69,000

BlockBeats News, July 19th, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted a message stating that the Bitcoin bear market has lasted for about 9 months, affecting both short-term and long-term holders. The short-term holder cost basis has dropped below the long-term holder cost basis, and after a 3-day confirmation, triggering the "bear market nearing the end" signal. This indicator calculates the long-term holder cost basis by excluding BTC held for over 7 years to more accurately reflect long-term holdings that are still economically active.

Darkfost emphasized that this signal does not mean the immediate end of the bear market or indicate that the market bottom has been determined. Instead, it suggests that the market may be entering the final stage of the bear market, during which a dollar-cost averaging strategy may be more rational.

He stated that if the short-term holder cost basis subsequently rises back above the long-term holder cost basis, it can be considered a confirmation signal of the beginning of a bull market and can serve as a reference for ending dollar-cost averaging. Currently, the short-term holder cost basis has dropped from $112,500 to $69,000.